{"id":5739,"date":"2015-08-15T15:17:27","date_gmt":"2015-08-15T07:17:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.sepc.ac.cn\/?p=5739"},"modified":"2016-01-26T16:00:05","modified_gmt":"2016-01-26T08:00:05","slug":"2030%e5%b9%b4%e5%a4%aa%e9%98%b3%e5%b0%86%e4%bc%91%e7%9c%a0%ef%bc%8c%e5%9c%b0%e7%90%83%e8%bf%9b%e5%85%a5%e5%86%b0%e6%b2%b3%e6%9c%9f%ef%bc%81%e8%bf%99%e6%98%af%e7%9c%9f%e7%9a%84%e5%90%97%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/blog.sepc.ac.cn\/?p=5739","title":{"rendered":"2030\u5e74\u592a\u9633\u5c06\u4f11\u7720\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u8fdb\u5165\u51b0\u6cb3\u671f\uff01\u8fd9\u662f\u771f\u7684\u5417\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

    \u6700\u8fd1\u7f51\u4e0a\u76db\u4f20\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u5219\u6d88\u606f\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u79f0\uff0c2030\u5e74\u592a\u9633\u5c06\u4f11\u7720\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u5ea6\u6050\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u5c06\u8fdb\u5165\u5c0f\u51b0\u6cb3\u671f\uff01\u201d\u5728\u8fd9\u708e\u708e\u590f\u65e5\uff0c\u5fae\u535a\u4e0a\u6d41\u4f20\u7684\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u4ee4\u4f60\u611f\u5230\u4e00\u4e1d\u5bd2\u610f\uff1f\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u5219\u6d88\u606f\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u5ea6\u53c8\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n

1.\u51db\u51ac\u5c06\u81f3\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6050\u614c<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u6c14\u5019\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53ca\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u53d8\u5316\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u53d7\u5230\u5173\u6ce8\u30027\u670810\u65e5\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u300a\u6bcf\u65e5\u90ae\u62a5\u300b\u63f4\u5f15\u82f1\u56fd\u5973\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u74e6\u4f26\u8482\u5a1c\u00b7\u624e\u5c14\u79d1\u74e6\uff08ValentinaZharkova\uff09\u57282015\u5e74\u82f1\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5929\u6587\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u62a5\u9053\u79f0\u592a\u9633\u5c06\u57282030\u5e74\u201c\u4f11\u7720\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u5730\u7403\u6c14\u6e29\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u4f7f\u5f97\u5730\u7403\u6b65\u5165\u201c\u5c0f\u51b0\u6cb3\u671f\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u56fe1 \u5317\u6781\u51b0\u5ddd<\/p>\n

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    \u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u8fd8\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u9884\u8a00\uff0c\u592a\u9633\u7684\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6ce2\u6b63\u5728\u9519\u5f00\u6b65\u8c03\uff0c\u5230\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u592a\u9633\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f2030\u5e74\uff0d2040\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5c31\u5c06\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u53cd\u800c\u76f8\u4e92\u62b5\u6d88\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u51cf\u5f31\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u300a\u6bcf\u65e5\u90ae\u62a5\u300b\u62a5\u9053\u91cc\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\uff0c\u201c\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u5c06\u57282030\u5e74\u524d\u540e\u51cf\u5c1160%\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

    \u90a3\u4e48\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462\uff1f\u73b0\u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u80fd\u5426\u5bf9\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u4f5c\u51fa\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u62a5\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u771f\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u5ea6\u4ea7\u751f\u5de8\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\uff1f<\/p>\n

2. \u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u9884\u62a5<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u6309\u7167\u5c3a\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u901f\u5ea6\u3001\u8fd0\u52a8\u901f\u5ea6\u6216\u8005\u80fd\u91cf\u91ca\u653e\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u6210\u4e24\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\uff0c\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u7f13\u53d8\u578b\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u4e3a\u7206\u53d1\u578b\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u987e\u540d\u601d\u4e49\uff0c\u7f13\u53d8\u578b\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u5728\u5c3a\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u901f\u5ea6\u3001\u8fd0\u52a8\u901f\u5ea6\u6216\u8005\u80fd\u91cf\u91ca\u653e\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u4e0a\u90fd\u76f8\u5bf9\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u9ed1\u5b50\u3001\u5149\u7403\u4e2d\u7684\u5149\u6591\uff0c\u8272\u7403\u4e2d\u7684\u8c31\u6591\u3001\u65e5\u73e5\uff08\u6697\u6761\uff09\uff0c\u65e5\u5195\u4e2d\u7684\u5195\u6d1e\u3001\u51dd\u805a\u533a\u548c\u5195\u73af\u7b49\u3002\u7206\u53d1\u578b\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u5219\u662f\u66f4\u5177\u6709\u201c\u7206\u53d1\u201d\u7684\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4e5f\u76f4\u63a5\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u592a\u9633\u7206\u53d1\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u8000\u6591\u3001\u65e5\u5195\u7269\u8d28\u629b\u5c04\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n

    \u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u9884\u62a5\u4e3b\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4e\u4e0e\u592a\u9633\u7206\u53d1\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u592a\u9633\u9ed1\u5b50\u662f\u592a\u9633\u5149\u7403\u8868\u9762\u7684\u5f3a\u78c1\u573a\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u4ece\u592a\u9633\u9ed1\u5b50\u53d1\u51fa\u7684\u78c1\u573a\u4f1a\u5728\u592a\u9633\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u5f62\u6210\u590d\u6742\u7684\u78c1\u573a\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u4e3a\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u63d0\u4f9b\u52a8\u529b\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u957f\u671f\u9884\u62a5\u5e38\u5e38\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u9ed1\u5b50\u6570\u7684\u957f\u671f\u9884\u62a5\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n

    \u9ed1\u5b50\u6570\u7684\u957f\u671f\u79ef\u7d2f\u8bb0\u5f55\u6210\u4e3a\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u957f\u671f\u9884\u62a5\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4f9d\u636e\u3002\u4ece\u9ed1\u5b50\u6570\u7684\u957f\u671f\u8bb0\u5f55\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u9ed1\u5b50\u6570\u7684\u591a\u5c11\u660e\u663e\u5730\u8868\u73b0\u51fa11\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u5468\u671f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u9ed1\u5b50\u6570\u7684\u957f\u671f\u9884\u62a5\u5c31\u662f\u9884\u62a5\u672a\u6765\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u5468\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5982\u9ed1\u5b50\u6570\u6781\u5927\u503c\u3001\u6781\u5c0f\u503c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u73b0\u65f6\u95f4\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u56fe2 \u00a0\u9ed1\u5b50\u6570\u7684\u5468\u671f\u53d8\u5316<\/p>\n

    \u9ed1\u5b50\u6570\u957f\u671f\u9884\u62a5\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5f00\u59cb\u4e8e20\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e2d\u671f\uff0c\u7ecf\u8fc7\u534a\u4e2a\u591a\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5df2\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u201c\u767e\u5bb6\u4e89\u9e23\u201d\u7684\u683c\u5c40\u3002\u5728\u9884\u62a5\u56e0\u5b50\u4e0a\u65e2\u6709\u5355\u7eaf\u7684\u9ed1\u5b50\u6570\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u592a\u9633\u6781\u5411\u573a\u3001\u5730\u78c1\u6307\u6570\u7b49\u5176\u5b83\u76f8\u5173\u56e0\u7d20\uff1b\u9884\u62a5\u6280\u672f\u4e0a\u65e2\u6709\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u8f83\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8fd1\u51e0\u5e74\u8fd8\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u6570\u503c\u6a21\u62df\u3002\u9884\u62a5\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u8c13\u4e94\u82b1\u516b\u95e8\uff0c\u9884\u62a5\u6548\u679c\u4e5f\u5404\u6709\u5343\u79cb\u3002\u4f9d\u636e\u6307\u5bfc\u601d\u60f3\u3001\u9884\u62a5\u6280\u672f\u6216\u9884\u62a5\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u9ed1\u5b50\u6570\u957f\u671f\u9884\u62a5\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u5206\u4e3a\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u592a\u9633\u53d1\u7535\u673a\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u62a5\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u25cf\u00a0\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u25cf\u00a0\u592a\u9633\u53d1\u7535\u673a\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u62a5\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u78c1\u573a\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\uff0c\u9ed1\u5b50\u5728\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u5c31\u662f\u5f3a\u78c1\u573a\u533a\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5f3a\u78c1\u573a\u533a\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5404\u79cd\u6d3b\u52a8\u73b0\u8c61\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u5468\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u592a\u9633\u53d1\u7535\u673a\u7406\u8bba\u5c31\u662f\u7528\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u592a\u9633\u78c1\u573a\u7684\u8d77\u6e90\u3001\u78c1\u573a\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u5404\u79cd\u6d3b\u52a8\u73b0\u8c61\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u53ca\u5176\u53d8\u5316\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u53d1\u7535\u673a\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u592a\u9633\u78c1\u573a\u662f\u7531\u6d3b\u52a8\u5468\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\uff08\u751a\u81f3\u5f00\u59cb\u4e4b\u524d3\u5e74\uff09\u592a\u9633\u7684\u6781\u5411\u78c1\u573a\u6f14\u5316\u800c\u6765\uff0c\u5373\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u4e2d\u4f4e\u7eac\u5ea6\u78c1\u573a\u6e90\u4e8e\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u5468\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u6781\u533a\u6216\u9ad8\u7eac\u533a\u57df\u7684\u5f31\u78c1\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u56fe3 \u592a\u9633\u53d1\u7535\u673a\u6a21\u578b<\/p>\n

    \u5c06\u67d0\u4e00\u7279\u5b9a\u5468\u671f\u7684\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u6781\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u6781\u533a\u78c1\u573a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8f93\u5165\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5229\u7528\u592a\u9633\u53d1\u7535\u673a\u6a21\u578b\u901a\u8fc7\u6570\u503c\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u62a5\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u5468\u5f3a\u5ea6\u3002\u592a\u9633\u53d1\u7535\u673a\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u62a5\u65b9\u6cd5\u5177\u6709\u660e\u786e\u7684\u7269\u7406\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u662f\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u957f\u671f\u9884\u62a5\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u4f46\u592a\u9633\u53d1\u7535\u673a\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u62a5\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ea\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u5bf9\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u5468\u4e0a\u5347\u671f\u4ee5\u53ca\u6781\u5927\u671f\u7684\u9884\u62a5\uff0c\u5bf9\u6d3b\u52a8\u5468\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u671f\u8fd8\u4e0d\u80fd\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n

3.\u9884\u8a00\u771f\u5047\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u867d\u7136\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u9884\u62a5\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u7406\u8bba\u6216\u8005\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u8a00\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\u7684\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u4f1a\u5267\u70c8\u6216\u8005\u5e73\u6de1\u5230\u4ec0\u4e48\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u624e\u5c14\u79d1\u74e6\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5b9e\u8d28\u4e0a\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6027\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u662f\u4ece\u8fc7\u53bb3\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\u5bf9\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u5f3a\u5f31\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5f52\u7eb3\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u3002\u5b83\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u7269\u7406\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u624e\u5c14\u79d1\u74e6\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u5408\u7406\u731c\u6d4b\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u624e\u5c14\u79d1\u74e6\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u76842030\u5e74\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d60%\uff0c\u8fd9\u8fd8\u662f\u4e2a\u672a\u77e5\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n

    \u53ef\u662f\u5982\u679c\u624e\u5c14\u79d1\u74e6\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u5230\u4e862030\u5e74\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u771f\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u4e8660%\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5730\u7403\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u4f1a\u8fdb\u5165\u5230\u201c\u5c0f\u51b0\u6cb3\u671f\u201d\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n

    \u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u524d\u9762\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u6982\u5ff5\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u81ea\u7136\u4f1a\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u5b83\u548c\u7ed9\u4e88\u5730\u7403\u5149\u548c\u70ed\u7684\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u5bf9\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u7684\u603b\u80fd\u91cf\u5f71\u54cd\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u57280.1%\u5de6\u53f3\u3002<\/p>\n

    \u592a\u7a7a\u98de\u8239\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u5730\u7403\u5927\u6c14\u5c42\u5916\u63a5\u6536\u5230\u7684\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u76f8\u5f53\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u603b\u57281366W\/m^2\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u867d\u7136\u5b83\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u9ad8\u5e74\u7684\u603b\u8f90\u5c04\u91cf\u6bd4\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u4f4e\u5e74\u4ec5\u9ad80.1%\u3002\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u65e0\u6cd5\u5f15\u8d77\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u91cf\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u592a\u9633\u7ed9\u4e88\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u6ce2\u957f\u8f83\u957f\u7684\u53ef\u89c1\u5149\u548c\u7ea2\u5916\u6ce2\u6bb5\u3002\u800c\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u51cf\u5f31\u65f6\uff0c\u8f90\u5c04\u51cf\u5f31\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u6ce2\u957f\u8f83\u77ed\u7684X\u5c04\u7ebf\u3001\u6781\u7d2b\u5916\u548c\u7d2b\u5916\u6ce2\u6bb5\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u4e2d\u6240\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u91cd\u8f83\u4f4e\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u5373\u4f7f\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e0b\u964d\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f15\u8d77\u5730\u7403\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u964d\u6e29\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u56fe4 \u901a\u8fc7\u91cd\u5efa\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb400\u5e74\u95f4\u592a\u9633\u603b\u8f90\u5c04\u901a\u91cf\u7684\u53d8\u5316<\/p>\n

    \u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u6765\u770b\u770b\u5982\u679c\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u6781\u5176\u5e73\u9759\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u8fdb\u5165\u201c\u5c0f\u51b0\u6cb3\u671f\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

    \u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u957f\u671f\u5904\u4e8e\u5e73\u9759\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u4e0d\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\uff0c\u6700\u6709\u540d\u4fbf\u662f\u201c\u8499\u5fb7\u6781\u5c0f\u671f\u201d\u3002\u6839\u636e\u5386\u53f2\u89c2\u6d4b\u8d44\u6599\uff0c\u4ece1645\u5e74\u52301715\u5e74\uff0c\u592a\u9633\u9ed1\u5b50\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u8870\u51cf\u5230\u6781\u4f4e\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u8fd9\u6bb5\u65f6\u671f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u8499\u5fb7\u6781\u5c0f\u671f\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u56fe5 \u8fd1400\u5e74\u6765\u5bf9\u592a\u9633\u9ed1\u5b50\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u4ee511\u5e74\u4e3a\u5468\u671f\u53d1\u751f\u7740\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u57281645\u5e74\u52301715\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u9ed1\u5b50\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u8bb0\u5f55\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e3a\u96f6\u3002<\/p>\n

    \u90a3\u4e48\u201c\u5c0f\u51b0\u6cb3\u671f\u201d\u53c8\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462\uff1f\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u572816\u4e16\u7eaa\u523018\u4e16\u7eaa\u90fd\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u6709\u5386\u53f2\u8bb0\u5f55\u7684\u4e25\u5bd2\u5929\u6c14\uff0c\u8fd9\u6bb5\u65f6\u671f\u56e0\u6b64\u53c8\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u5c0f\u51b0\u6cb3\u671f\u201d\u3002\u4ece\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u6bb5\u201c\u5c0f\u51b0\u6cb3\u671f\u201d\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0e\u201c\u8499\u5fb7\u6781\u5c0f\u671f\u201d\u786e\u6709\u91cd\u5408\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u91cd\u5efa\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6c14\u6e29\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u6e29\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u59cb\u4e8e1560\u5e74\u52301600\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u800c\u201c\u8499\u5fb7\u6781\u5c0f\u671f\u201d\u8981\u5230\u8fd150\u5e74\u540e\u76841645\u5e74\u624d\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5c06\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u201c\u5c0f\u51b0\u6cb3\u671f\u201d\u539f\u56e0\u5f52\u7ed3\u4e3a\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u8d8b\u4e8e\u5e73\u9759\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\u4e0a\u662f\u8bf4\u4e0d\u901a\u7684\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5730\u8d28\u7814\u7a76\u5219\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5730\u8d28\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u201c\u5c0f\u51b0\u6cb3\u671f\u201d\u90fd\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u706b\u5c71\u6d3b\u52a8\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002\u706b\u5c71\u6d3b\u52a8\u4f1a\u55b7\u53d1\u51fa\u70df\u5c18\uff0c\u5305\u88f9\u4f4f\u5730\u7403\uff0c\u906e\u853d\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u9633\u5149\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u624d\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u5730\u7403\u964d\u6e29\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u81f3\u4e8e\u5f53\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u6781\u5f31\u65f6\uff0c\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\u52302100\u5e74\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u4e5f\u53ea\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d\u5927\u7ea60.10C\u3002\u800c\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u5bfc\u81f4\u5730\u7403\u7684\u5347\u6e29\u5e45\u5ea6\u5374\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u8fbe3-40C\u3002<\/p>\n

    \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ece\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5206\u6790\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u624e\u5c14\u79d1\u74e6\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u76842030\u5e74\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d60%\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u7b49\u5f85\u65f6\u95f4\u6765\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u800c\u5c4a\u65f6\u5730\u7403\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u8fdb\u5165\u51b0\u6cb3\u671f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5c31\u7b97\u300a\u6bcf\u65e5\u90ae\u62a5\u300b\u6240\u8bf4\u201c\u51db\u51ac\u5c06\u81f3\u201d\u7684\u9884\u8a00\u6210\u771f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8d8a\u5347\u8d8a\u9ad8\u7684\u5730\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u51cf\u5f31\u4e5f\u5b8c\u5168\u4e8e\u4e8b\u65e0\u8865\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\uff1a<\/p>\n

[1]Science Vol.294.no.5549 pp.2149-2152,doi:10.1126\/science.1064363.<\/p>\n

[2] Geophysical Research Letters, VOL.37, L05707,<\/p>\n

doi:10.1029\/2010GL042710,2010<\/p>\n

[3] 2030\u5e74\u592a\u9633\u4f11\u7720\uff0c\u51db\u51ac\u5c06\u81f3\uff1f\u6ca1\u8c31\u7684\u4e8b\u513f\uff01\u679c\u58f3\u7f51\uff0cSteed.<\/p>\n

[4] The effects of solar variability on earth\u2019s climate: A workshop report. National Academies Press, 2012.<\/p>\n

[5]Amplifying the pacific climate system response to a small 11-year solar cycle forcing, Gerald A. Meehl, et.al, Scinece,325(5944),1114-1118.<\/p>\n

[6]Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23, Simon J. Shepherd, Sergei I. Zharkov, and Valentina V. Zharkova, The Astrophysical Journal, 795:46 (8pp), 2014 November 1.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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    \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ece\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5206\u6790\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u624e\u5c14\u79d1\u74e6\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u76842030\u5e74\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d60%\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u7b49\u5f85\u65f6\u95f4\u6765\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u800c\u5c4a\u65f6\u5730\u7403\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u8fdb\u5165\u51b0\u6cb3\u671f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5c31\u7b97\u300a\u6bcf\u65e5\u90ae\u62a5\u300b\u6240\u8bf4\u201c\u51db\u51ac\u5c06\u81f3\u201d\u7684\u9884\u8a00\u6210\u771f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8d8a\u5347\u8d8a\u9ad8\u7684\u5730\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u51cf\u5f31\u4e5f\u5b8c\u5168\u4e8e\u4e8b\u65e0\u8865\u3002 \u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\uff1a [1]Science Vol.294.no.5549 pp.2149-2152,doi:10.1126\/science.1064363. … \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb 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